Wired Breakfast

Apologies for the longer than usual post.

This morning I was at the Wired Intelligence Briefing. There was the usual mix of people in the audience, plenty of Shoreditch techies with their beards and blazers, a smattering of suits (Conde Nast luvvies), a few journos and agency types, and so on. However, I was sat next to someone who was there not because his job title meant that he could get away with a few hours out of the office to scoff some pastries like the rest of us, but because he liked reading the magazine. He was a NORMAL person. I stared at him vacantly and couldn’t think of anything to say to the poor chap.

Anyway, the bulk of the morning was a presentation on coming trends from Wired’s creative agency Hurrel Moseley Dawson and Grimmer. It outlined ten trends, which I list here and give my two pence worth on.

Trend: Individuals vs the corporation

In other words: People will organise themselves to apply pressure on companies to sort out their act and become more transparent in their ways of working

Is it real? It’s already happening (take Starbucks and their taps) but mass media still play a role (Starbucks only really took notice when the Sun, BBC and CNN started running the story)

Trend: The media are unpoliceable

In other words: You can’t regulate or control the internet which is increasingly how people access news and opinion.

Is it real? Yes, it’s like herding cats

Trend: Google’s achilles’ heel

In other words: Real time search could undermine Google’s dominance (ie if you want a plumber isn’t it better to read local people’s experiences in the last few months rather than see a bland list of local plumbers)

Is it real? Real time search sounds like a winner, but Google are smart enough and rich enough to work out a way to cash in on it

Trend: New types of abundance require new types of scarcity

In other words: We have access to tons of stuff and attention is the substance that is now scarce

Is it real? Perhaps, but there are also signs of content becoming scarce again (ie Murdoch’s plans for paid-for content)

Trend: Local Local Local

In other words: Local

Is it real? The idea of communities coming together online to improve their lot, share and discuss sounds great and happens in some places. But it only really works when there is a real shared threat, like someone wanting to build a runway through the school playground. Apart from living in the same place you probably have very little in common with your fellow town folk and some of them will be the type who litter the streets with empty bottles of Lambrini and wear Crocs.

Trend: We are entering a new era of etiquette

In other words: With so much personal info online there are some behaviours that are just not cricket

Is it real? I suppose so, brands can easily screw up by not following the unwritten rules (ie Habitat and their Twitter faux pas). But did everyone stop buying cushions?

Trend: Social networks have a half-life

In other words: there is a cycle of boom and bust as people move on, a bit like the cool kids leaving town when the first Fresh & Wild store opens up.

Is it real? It has been (Friends reunited then Myspace then Facebook). But times are changing and Facebook Connect (where you carry your profile around with you to other networks) could break the cycle.

Trend: There will be an explosion of UK political activism

In other words: Squillions of people are becoming more involved in Politics online

Is it real? Not really. Signing some online petition or joining a Facebook group is a bit of a hollow commitment.

Serendipity and shared experiences

In other words: Despite hyper targeting there is still huge demand for shared experience and discovering new things

Is it real? Obviously yes

Trend: Watch out, sport

In other words: Sport will be the next target for piracy on a mass scale

Is it real? I doubt it. There is only so much sport that people want and it’s already available for a few quid a week in HD surround sound 5.1 stereo with Hawkeye and expert opinion from Warney